90-Day Recovered Revenue P&L — Three Scenarios
Ramp-adjusted: Month 1 = 60% of steady-state fill rate (onboarding), Month 2 = 85%, Month 3 = full. Three probability scenarios shown: Conservative, Base Case, Optimistic.
| Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | 90-Day Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancelled slots detected | 16 | 16 | 16 | — |
| Slots filled Conservative | 3 | 4 | 5 | — |
| Slots filled Base Case | 5 | 7 | 8 | 20 |
| Slots filled Optimistic | 6 | 8 | 10 | — |
| Avg reimbursement / slot | $10,500 | $10,500 | $10,500 | — |
| Recovered revenue Conservative | $31,500 | $42,000 | $52,500 | — |
| Recovered revenue Base Case | $52,500 | $73,500 | $84,000 | $210,000 |
| Recovered revenue Optimistic | $63,000 | $84,000 | $105,000 | — |
| CaseFlow platform cost (Growth (10 locations)) | ($1,490) | ($1,490) | ($1,490) | ($4,470) |
| Net recovered revenue Base Case | $51,010 | $72,010 | $82,510 | $205,530 |
| ROI multiple Conservative | 20.1× | 27.2× | 34.2× | — |
| ROI multiple Base Case | 34.2× | 48.3× | 55.4× | — |
Assumptions — Auditable Inputs
Every number in the table above flows from these six inputs. Change any one of them and the P&L recalculates. CFO-grade source citations included.
Monthly Procedures
208
Estimated from 10 locations ×
~20 procedures/location/month.
Validated against specialty benchmark data.
Cancellation Rate
8%
MGMA 2023 benchmarks for Cardiology / Interventional.
National range: 8–14% for surgical specialties.
Conservative mid-point applied.
Cancelled Slots / Month
16
Monthly procedures × cancellation rate.
Each cancelled slot represents a discrete revenue loss event.
Avg Reimbursement / Slot
$10,500
2024 CMS ASC payment system + commercial blend, cardiac cath/EP/structural mix
Fill Probability Range
30–62%
Conservative = 30% (same-day slots, short notice).
Base Case = 50% (CaseFlow live customer median, Q1 2024).
Optimistic = 62% (top-quartile deployment).
Does NOT include slots filled for same-day cancellations under 2 hours notice (excluded conservatively).
CaseFlow Platform Cost
$1,490/mo
Growth (10 locations).
Includes all locations, unlimited staff seats, HIPAA BAA, full onboarding,
and EHR integration (athenahealth).
No per-case or per-SMS fees.
Downside Scenario — What If We Only Hit 40% of Base Case?
Even at 40% of our projected fill rate, net recovered revenue is still positive.
Downside scenario: fill rate = 20% (40% of Base Case 50%). Slots filled per month: 3.
At Month 3 (steady-state, no ramp discount):
| Gross recovered revenue | $31,500 |
| CaseFlow cost | ($1,490) |
| Net recovered revenue | $30,010 |
The platform pays for itself at 0 slots filled per month — or 1% of detected cancelled slots. Every slot above that is pure recovery.
90-Day Summary (Base Case)
Slots filled
20
across 90 days
Gross recovered revenue
$210,000
base case, ramp-adjusted
CaseFlow total cost
$4,470
3 months, all-in
Net recovered revenue
$205,530
after platform cost
Implementation Timeline — 14-Day Pilot to Full Deployment
1
Days 1–3
Connect & Configure
- EHR read-only connection via athenahealth API (no PHI stored on CaseFlow servers)
- Practice and location onboarding — staff accounts, SMS sender ID provisioning
- Waitlist import from your existing scheduler (CSV or API)
2
Days 4–7
First Cancellation Filled
- First live cancellation detected — waitlist blast fires automatically within 60 seconds
- Staff inbox active for reply triage across all 10 locations
- Pre-op confirmation SMS cadence live (t−14/7/3/1 day + 3-hour day-of)
3
Days 8–14 (Pilot Measurement)
Baseline Comparison
- CaseFlow auto-generates pilot P&L: slots filled, revenue recovered, no-show delta vs. your pre-CaseFlow baseline
- Comparison exported to the filled-slot ledger — audit-ready with SHA-256 signature per entry
- Go/no-go decision with real data from your own schedule
4
Month 1 (Ramp)
Full-Network Activation
- All 10 locations active — shared cross-location waitlist for maximum slot-fill leverage
- Risk scoring live: CaseFlow flags no-show-risk cases 72h out and triggers proactive outreach
- Weekly P&L digest sent to Tim Attebery and ops team every Friday
5
Month 2–3 (Steady State)
Board-Packet Reporting
- Monthly surgeon-level impact reports — per-physician slots recovered, revenue, no-show rate vs. network benchmark
- PE diligence artifact: proof ledger with token-gated PDF for your sponsor's portco review
- Expansion planning: contralateral / bilateral reactivation pipeline and post-op NPS rollup
Ready to run this against your actual schedule?
Skip the call — start the 14-day pilot now and get proof in your own numbers within 7 days. Or book 15 minutes if you'd rather talk first.